SATURDAY AM WRITEHTRHUR after Friday afternoon’s update… refresh for more As expected, Disney/20th Century Studios/Lightstorm’s Avatar: the way of the water remains number one in its fifth weekend with an MLK four-day run $35 million after a $7 million Friday -39% at 4,045 locations. 3 days seems to be close $27M-$29M-39%.
That will be the sequel to James Cameron $566.7 million at the domestic box office by EOD Monday, over The dark knight ($534.9 million) and Jon Favreau’s The lionking ($543.6 million) becomes the 13th highest-grossing film of all time in the US, Canada. The film will be shown in cinemas for 32 days on Monday. At that time, a year ago, Spider-Man: No Way Home had already crossed the $700 million threshold.
avatar2 has all premium formats again this weekend (Dolby, Imax, PLFs). They’ll be giving up Dolby halls when Universal’s M. Night Shyamalan’s Knock on the hut hits theaters February 3.
Indeed, while the four-day weekend is expected to take in $115.4 million for all titles, it’s not the best MLK holiday trajectory we’ve seen at the box office, with a 44% discount from the $205.3 million of before covid 2020 then Bad boys for life gathered. But the 4-day frame is +36% off last year’s $85 million MLK holiday weekend, and that’s something the industry can be thankful for, fueled by a phenomenal grab by a horror movie and the expansion of a drama for older adults that go directly to Central America.
Strong in second place is Universal/Atomic Monster/Blumhouse’s M3GAN right away $4.85 million second Friday, -59%, a 3-day of $17.5 million-42%, and a 4-day van $20.7 million where the photo’s 11-day running total is $59.2 million. Social media metrics corp RelishMix reports that over the past week, M3GAN has added nearly 110,000 followers to its social media with TikTok adding +49K, Instagram +48K, Twitter 8K and Facebook 4K – “which is exceptional for new IP.”
Universal also has bragging rights Puss in Boots: The Last Wish in 3,641 theaters: The DreamWorks Animation title flies past the century mark on Monday $109 million. The fourth Friday of the picture is $3 million-10% 3-day $12.4 million (-8%) and 4 days $16 million in fourth place. Behold, the box office smash here, as the movie is also available on PVOD, given Universal’s 17-day exclusive theatrical window policy for titles that open at less than $50 million.
A promising sign this weekend: Sony’s A man named Otto wants to exceed its $8 million four-day expectations and actually give a boost to older lopsided movies. The pictures expanded to 3,802 theaters on Friday $4 million overlooking third of $14 million for four days – very good for a drama like this in this recovering market. The photos run through Monday seems to be on it $20 million. That’s unbelievably better than anything Babylon did in its 4-day Christmas weekend ($3.6 million) and Tri-Star/Compelling Pictures/Black Label Media’s I want to dance with someone ($4.7 million). The audience on Rotten Tomatoes always liked it Otto better than critics, 97% to 69% fresh. In Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak audience outputs, the Hanks movie stars at 93% positive with a 76% recommendation. Who came out? Older women. Overall female attendance is 60% with a total audience of 62% over 45, 46% over 55. And the movie plays to the heart – a part of the country that Hollywood needs to make more movies for if it hits the domestic box office want to bring back. It’s not just about NYC and LA. Otto saw all of the top 10 runs come from Mid-West and South without LA and NYC running in its top 75 theaters “which is almost unheard of,” says a source at the box office. Pic’s over-indexing cities were Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Tampa, Minnesota, Orlando, Denver and Detroit. However, there are a lot of smaller towns I hear like Toledo and Pittsburgh. Other demos were 70% White, 15% Hispanic and Latino, 3% Black, and 12% Asian/Other. The film cost $50 million before P&A, co-financed by SF and TSG.
The fifth is from Lionsgate Flat secured one $3.5 million Friday, $10.5 million – $11.7 million 4 days, the last within his expectation. The award for Gerard Butler’s title is Universal’s Ambulance who posted an $8.7 million 3-day. Flat is nearby $9.5 million for 3 days. The film gets a B+, which is the same grade as the last notable action movie about meat and potatoes in early winter that was pre-pandemic, Guy Ritche’s Mr which opened to $10.6 million and in January 2020 spun out to a 3.4 multiple from STX with $36.4 million. PostTrak exits are also good here at 83% and a 63% recommendation. Boys showed up at 54%, 47% were between 18-34 with 51% over the age of 35. Diversity demos were 44% White, 24% Latino and Hispanic, 17% Black, and 15% Asian/Other. Flat flew best in the south and west, where nine of the top ten runs came from. The picture costs in the low $20 million with a P&A in the same range. Lionsgate has previously released this guy’s action shots on a movie theater-to-home entertainment ratio, with the final window being like catnip for its main audience.
RelishMix envisions a social media universe Flat on Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, Twitter and YouTube at 35.1 million, which is “below standards”. However, the cast makes a mess of the photo with Gerard Butler pushing to his nearly 16 million fans, Mike Colter to 366,000, and Daniella Pineda to her nearly 180,000 Instagram followers.
Social media chatter is mixed for the picture, says RelishMix: “Gerard Butler fans are excited about a new chase, race or fight for the new year, plus added excitement for Tony Goldwyn and Mike Colter – as chatter enters the Airbus plane raises doubts with comparisons to recent flight delays in the news — while other fans wonder if ‘maybe the plane is normal’.”
Warner Bros. has the New Line reboot of House party which grossed $1.4 million yesterday, bringing the movie, originally conceived for HBO Max, to $4 million in 1,350 theaters ranks 6th. The idea with these low-cost post-Jason Kilar-era HBO Max movies is to put them in theaters, give them a sort of window before they go through a 17-day PVOD and 45-day run on HBO Max. It’s hard to win over critics with comedies and this one didn’t make them laugh with 26% on Rotten Tomatoes. The audience was so-so with 65% fresh on that site’s meter.
MORE..GRAPH IS COMING
FRIDAY AM: On a wintry Thursday still ruled by James Cameron Avatar: the way of the waterTom Hanks drama from Sony A man named Otto and Lionsgate’s Gerard Butler action shot, Flattried to get an early start with $635K and $625K each respectively.
Here’s the thing, technically, Otto is all the richer: If you count the Marc Forster-directed title on Thursday $420,000 from 637 theaters, the picture made $1.06 million yesterday. However, Sony will count preview night cash from 2,493 theaters (where showtimes started at 2 p.m. yesterday) toward Otto’s Friday. Otto expands to 3,800 locations. Pic’s running total without previews for two weeks is $6.2 million.
Neither Otto nor Flat looks to rule the 4-day MLK weekend with respective projections of $8 million and $7 million – $10 million as Disney/20th/Lightstorm’s Avatar: the way of the water appears to lead with $35M.. Flat had two sets of previews on Wednesday and Thursday starting at 7pm. The Butler Picture has been booked in 3,023 theaters. avatar2 ended its fourth week with nearly $60 million from 4,340 theaters and a running total of $531.7 million. avatar2 led all movies yesterday with $2.92 million, -8% as of Wednesday.
Universal/Blumhouse/Atomic Monsters M3GAN ends week one at 3,509 locations with $38.5 million after a $1.67 million Thursday, -6% from Wednesday. The photo is shy of about $400K screamfirst week of $38.9 million last year.
Warner Bros. theatrical release of the former HBO Max New Line title House party will pack his preview numbers from last night into his weekend total. The photo at 1,300 locations is expected to be in the mid-single digits.
Universal/DreamWorks animations Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at 3,919 did $1.08 million on Thursday, -5% from Wednesday, a third week of $18.3 million and pending cume of $92.9 million.